STATISTICS FROM A TO Z<br />-- CONFUSING CONCEPTS CLARIFIED
  • Home
    • Why This Book Is Needed
    • Articles List, Additional Concepts
    • Examples: 1-Page Summaries
    • Examples: Concept Flow Diagram
    • Examples: Compare and Contrast Tables
    • Examples: Cartoons
    • Example: Which to Use When Article
  • Buy
  • Blog
  • Sample Articles
  • Videos
  • Author
  • Communicate
  • Files
  • Errata

New Video: Alternative Hypothesis

10/31/2016

0 Comments

 
Picture

​Last week I uploaded a video on the Null Hypothesis to the YouTube channel. This video on the Alternative Hypothesis, is the 2nd of 5 on the larger concept of Hypothesis Testing. There is some redundancy between these first two, because one can't fully discuss the Null Hypothesis without addressing the Alternative Hypothesis and vice versa. And redundancy and repetition are helpful when you're trying to understand a concept.

The Alternative Hypothesis is one of those statistics concepts on which experts disagree. Many include it as part of their recommended  approach to Hypothesis Testing. Others are strongly opposed to its use. I think it's very useful for two reasons:
  1. In a 1-tailed (1-sided) test, it tells you in which direction (left or right) the tail points
  2. It is also known as the "Maintained Hypothesis" or "Research Hypothesis", and it is a logical place to start  before stating the Null Hypothesis. 
See the video or the book for more on this. See also the "Videos" page on this website for more on which videos are coming soon.
0 Comments

Statistics Tip of the Week: What ANOVA does and does not do

10/26/2016

5 Comments

 
The concept of ANOVA can be confusing in several aspects. To start with, its name is an acronym for "ANalysis Of VAriance", but it is not used for analyzing Variances. (F and Chi-square tests are used for that.) ANOVA is used for analyzing Means. The internal calculations that it uses to do so involve analyzing Variances -- hence the name.
  • The 1st column in the following table describes what ANOVA does do.
  • The 2nd column says what ANOVA does not do.
  • The 3rd column tells what to use if we want do what's in the 2nd column.
Picture
5 Comments

You are not alone if you are confused by statistics #4

10/26/2016

0 Comments

 
Picture
Thomas Pyzdek is co-author of The Six Sigma Handbook and president of the Pyzdek Institute.  He has been using and teaching statistics as part of Six Sigma process improvement methods for decades. Prior to agreeing to publish the book, Statistics from A to Z -- Confusing Concepts Clarified, Wiley asked Mr. Pyzdek to review some excerpts. 

He replied, "This book addresses a real need and it seems to do it in a unique and interesting way. I especially like the humor, which should help overcome the sheer terror many people experience with statistics."
 
Note the term "sheer terror". Mr. Pydek teaches the Six Sigma to intelligent technical people, including engineers. And he's not the only one to describe the reaction to statistics as terror -- as we'll see in a future "You are not alone ... " blog post.

0 Comments

New video: Null Hypothesis

10/25/2016

0 Comments

 
Picture

​This video, Null Hypothesis,  is the first of hopefully many videos based on content from the book, Statistics from A to Z -- Confusing Concepts Clarified. They will be on the YouTube channel which has the same name as the book here's a link http://bit.ly/2dD5H5f. Please subscribe to the channel to be notified when new videos are uploaded. You can also see on the Videos page on this website not only which videos are currently available, but also which are planned to be uploaded next.

As you can see from the graphic above, the videos, like the articles in the book,  usually start with 4 or 5 Keys to Understanding (KTUs), so that you can see on one page the key things you need to know to understand the concept. The rest of the article or video goes into detailed explanations of each KTU.
Picture
This little cartoon is used in support of KTU #2. I've found it's usually best to try to phrase the Null Hypothesis as either no difference, no change, or no effect. 

However, it's even clearer to avoid the use of words completely, as KTU #3 explains.

0 Comments

The book, Statistics from A to Z -- Confusing Concepts Clarified, is now available

10/24/2016

0 Comments

 
Picture
My book, Statistics from A to Z -- Confusing Concepts Clarified, published by Wiley, is now available, as a paperback or ebook. The ​Wiley "Buy the Book" page​ shows the online booksellers in your geography. 

​Why this book is needed:
     Statistics is confusing, even for intelligent, technical people. If you scroll through this blog, you'll see a number of posts -- another coming this week -- titled "You are not alone if you are confused by statistics."  And existing books and websites don't do enough to clear up this confusion. I know; I bought several books with titles like "Statistics for the Clueless", I went to websites, and I watched videos, but that really didn't help enough. So, I spent two and a half years researching and writing my own explanations.
What makes this book unique:
  • Easy to Understand: It uses unique "graphics that teach", such as concept flow diagrams, compare-and-contrast tables, and even cartoons to enhance "rememberability". See the home page of the website that this blog is on, www.statisticsfromatoz.com for examples.
  • Easy to Use: Alphabetically organized, like a mini-encyclopedia, for easy lookup on the job, while studying, or during an open-book exam. No more looking up a something in an index and then trying to assemble some kind of coherent concept from bits and pieces on different pages throughout the book.
  • Wider Scope: In addition to Statistics I and Statistics II, this book covers the Six Sigma Black Belt concepts in statistics for processes.

Videos:
     There are more than 60 concepts explained in the 75 articles in this book. I plan to make YouTube videos (slideshows with narration) on many or most of them.  The first one -- on the Null Hypothesis -- will be uploaded in the next day or two. Please watch this space for the announcement. Videos will be uploaded to my YouTube channel which has the same name as the book. 
     Please subscribe to the channel to be notified of videos when they are uploaded. Also, the Videos page on this website will list available and planned videos.
0 Comments

Statistics Tip of the Week: the F and Chi-Square Tests of Variance

10/19/2016

1 Comment

 
​Most users of Statistics are familiar with the F-test for Variances. But there is also a Chi-Square Test for the Variance. What's the difference?
Picture
The F-Test compares the Variances from 2 different Populations or Processes. It basically divides one Variance by the other and uses the appropriate F Distribution to determine whether there is a Statistically Significant difference.
 
If you're familiar with t-tests, the F-test is analogous to the 2-Sample t-test.
 
The F-test is a Parametric test. That is, it requires that the data from both the 2 Samples each be roughly Normal.
 
Chi-Square (like z, t, and F) is a Test Statistic. That is, it has an associated family of Probability Distributions.
 
The Chi-Square Test for the Variance compares the Variance from a Single Population or Process to a Variance that we specify. That could be a target value, a historical value, or anything else.
 
Since there is only 1 Sample of data from the single Population or Process, the Chi-Square test is analogous to the 1-Sample t-test.
 
The Chi-Square test is Nonparametric. It has no restrictions on the data. 
1 Comment

You Are Not Alone if You Are Confused by Statistics #3: 1 set of raw data, 4 good pollsters, 4 different results.

10/18/2016

0 Comments

 
Picture
from the Upshot column in the New York Times: nyti.ms/2cOi2n4
0 Comments

Statistics Tip of the Week: the Alpha and Margin of Error Seesaw

10/12/2016

0 Comments

 
Picture
​ 
Alpha is the the Significance Level of a statistical test. We select a value for Alpha based on the level of Confidence we want that the test will avoid a False Positive (aka Alpha aka Type I) Error.  In the diagrams below, Alpha is split in half and shown as shaded areas under the right and left tails of the Distribution curve. This is for a 2-tailed, aka 2-sided test.
Picture
In the left graph above, we have selected the common value of 5% for Alpha. A Critical Value is the point on the horizontal axis where the shaded area ends. The Margin of Error (MOE) is half the distance between the two Critical Values.

A Critical Value is a value on the horizontal axis which forms the boundary of one of the  shaded areas. And the Margin of Error is half the distance between the Critical Values.  

If we want to make Alpha even smaller, the distance between Critical Values would get even larger, resulting in a larger Margin of Error.

The right diagram shows that if we want to make the MOE smaller, the price would be larger Alpha. This illustrates the Alpha - MOE see-saw effect. But what if we wanted a smaller MOE without making Alpha larger? Is that possible? It is -- by increasing n, the Sample Size. (It should be noted that, after a certain point, continuing to increase n yields diminishing returns. So, it's not a universal cure for these errors.)
0 Comments

You are not alone if you are confused by statistics #2.

10/6/2016

0 Comments

 
Picture
0 Comments

Statistics Tip of the Week: the Skew is in the direction of the long tail.

10/4/2016

0 Comments

 
Picture
There are 3 categories of numerical properties which describe a Probability Distribution (e.g. the Normal or Binomial Distributions).
  • Center: e.g. Mean
  • Variation: e.g. Standard Deviation
  • Shape: e.g. Skewness 

Skewness is a case in which common usage of a term is the opposite of statistical usage. If the average person saw the Distribution on the left, they would say that it's skewed to the right, because that is where the bulk of the curve is. However, in statistics, it's the opposite. The Skew is in the direction of the long tail.
​
If you can remember these drawings, think of "the tail wagging the dog."
0 Comments

    Author

    Andrew A. (Andy) Jawlik is the author of the book, Statistics from A to Z -- Confusing Concepts Clarified, published by Wiley.

    Archives

    March 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    May 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016

    Categories

    All
    New Video
    Stats Tip Of The Week
    You Are Not Alone

    RSS Feed

  • Home
    • Why This Book Is Needed
    • Articles List, Additional Concepts
    • Examples: 1-Page Summaries
    • Examples: Concept Flow Diagram
    • Examples: Compare and Contrast Tables
    • Examples: Cartoons
    • Example: Which to Use When Article
  • Buy
  • Blog
  • Sample Articles
  • Videos
  • Author
  • Communicate
  • Files
  • Errata